Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.040602 0.046888 0.053451 0.060782 0.068713 0.077004 0.086297
2025-04-20 0.032613 0.042062 0.052568 0.064964 0.079044 0.094408 0.112306
2025-04-27 0.024482 0.035197 0.047840 0.063495 0.082017 0.102924 0.128005
2025-05-04 0.020511 0.032330 0.046971 0.065787 0.088729 0.115256 0.147725
2025-05-11 0.016342 0.028445 0.044214 0.065242 0.091622 0.122809 0.161678
2025-05-18 0.014031 0.026617 0.043727 0.067227 0.097366 0.133596 0.179357
2025-05-25 0.011993 0.024825 0.043013 0.068697 0.102309 0.143322 0.195738
2025-06-01 0.009333 0.021637 0.040009 0.066833 0.102770 0.147369 0.205119
2025-06-08 0.007207 0.018888 0.037305 0.065092 0.103162 0.151162 0.214067
2025-06-15 0.006272 0.018006 0.037239 0.066917 0.108189 0.160769 0.230212
2025-06-22 0.005268 0.016801 0.036536 0.067736 0.111808 0.168557 0.244104
2025-06-29 0.004729 0.016398 0.037041 0.070267 0.117738 0.179338 0.261803
2025-07-06 0.003667 0.014755 0.035508 0.069908 0.119963 0.185705 0.274496
2025-07-13 0.003503 0.015101 0.037368 0.074749 0.129563 0.201923 0.300009
2025-07-20 0.002517 0.013195 0.035138 0.073208 0.130137 0.206247 0.310355
2025-07-27 0.002164 0.012798 0.035540 0.075727 0.136469 0.218233 0.330615
2025-08-03 0.001570 0.011463 0.034050 0.075135 0.138264 0.224126 0.343002
2025-08-10 0.001310 0.011062 0.034289 0.077303 0.144062 0.235428 0.362471
2025-08-17 0.001050 0.010533 0.034207 0.078907 0.149019 0.245603 0.380510
2025-08-24 0.000640 0.009078 0.032039 0.076873 0.148476 0.248197 0.388532
2025-08-31 0.000357 0.007802 0.030039 0.074972 0.148015 0.250826 0.396551
2025-09-07 0.000272 0.007547 0.030285 0.076965 0.153465 0.261656 0.415500
2025-09-14 0.000178 0.007060 0.029929 0.077858 0.157220 0.270139 0.431357